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Payday Loan Blog - SEO

 
 Thursday, June 28, 2007

The IAC Report Card

Next in our series of acquisition report cards for “search” companies, we turn to IAC. Previously we scored Google and Yahoo. How will IAC stack up to these two search powerhouses?

Reading further, we come away thinking that IAC is more similar to Yahoo than it is to Google, with a spammier feel, but a stronger domainer brand focus.

To understand the future, we once again need to peer into the past. With the help of the IAC’s major holdings page, the following is an attempt to score each holding. A “good” or “bad” acquisition is based solely on whether IAC has done anything useful, to date, with that holding, in terms of integration with the rest of the network. Since we have no real insight into the depths of IAC, in terms of key engineers that might have floated from one project to another, it is conjecture at best. But hey, we hope you enjoy the analysis anyhow.

COMPANY

BUSINESS AREA

GOOD/BAD

HSN

Retailing

GOOD
(The original focus, so it is difficult to judge; but there is serious volume behind the home shopping network)

Cornerstone Brands

Retailing

MIXED
(Mostly 2nd and third tier brands, which isn’t great, but they are salable through channels such as HSN)

Alsto’s

Retailing

MIXED
(Same situation as Cornerstone…the brands are marginal, but is better when coupled with the right sales channels)

Ballard Designs

Retailing

MIXED
(Again, the same as Cornerstone…most of the brands I’ve not heard of, but it is solid when pushed through the right sales channel)

Frontgate

Retailing

MIXED
(not the best brands, but looking at the site, they integrated the other properties nicely)

Garnet Hill

Retailing

MIXED
(Another 2nd/3rd tier brand that is packaged well with the owned sales channels)

Grandin Road

Retailing

MIXED
(Though it may seem repetitive, this is clearly their business model…buy a weak brand and push sales through the owned channels)

Home Focus

Retailing

MIXED
(see above; weak brand, good sales channel integration)

Individual Original Style

Retailing

MIXED
(Again with the weak brand and strong channel integration)

Isabella Bird

Retailing

MIXED
(If only IAC bought strong brands as well; they’d be unstoppable by now)

Smith + Noble

Retailing

MIXED
(another positive for the weak brand is that it does tie in well with some of the other weak home focus brands)

Territory Ahead

Retailing

MIXED
(For people that want the experience of REI without driving 2 blocks? Still, at least it has the channel integration)

Travel Smith

Retailing

MIXED
(It feels like the softer side of sears, but with links to Hotwire)

Shoesbuy

Retailing

MIXED
(This should be doing better, given the lack of real competition online for the general shoe market; sales integration props up a bad to a mixed)

Bagsbuy

Retailing

GOOD
(it isn’t bags.com, but it isn’t far off either. A decent brand with a good complimentary sales channel is “good”)

Outletbuy

Retailing

MIXED
(They are missing the opportunity to build an overstock competitor, but at least can integrate this with the other weak brands)

ShopChannel

Retailing

GOOD
(If you can’t read it, it’s because you can’t read Japanese; an important market that they have a decent market share of)

TVSN

Retailing

MIXED
(This is going to be their Chinese version of ShopChannel, which is their Japanese version of HSN. We’ll see if it works.)

Ticketmaster

Aggregator

GOOD
(A great brand is important for aggregation, and they’re doing a good job with it)

Reserve America

Aggregator

MIXED
(Something of a weak brand, but when coupled with services like Hotire, it is at worst a “mixed”)

Ticketweb

Aggregator

GOOD
(Though by itself it isn’t much; it reinforces the original Ticketmaster brand)

Reseau Admission

Aggregator

GOOD
(Similar to Ticketweb in that it reinforces the market leader position of Ticketmaster)

BilletNet

Aggregator

GOOD
(Like Admission, but German instead of French)

Billet Service

Aggregator

GOOD
(Norwegian version of reinforcing the market leader…I’m begging to like Ask’s aggregator strategy a lot more than their retailing strategy at this point)

Kartenhaus

Aggregator

GOOD
(same as above)

Lippupalvelu

Aggregator

GOOD
(same as above)

Live Daily

Aggregator

GOOD
(While not the best brand for actual concert news, that it ties in directly to Tickemaster makes it good)

Tick Tack Ticket

Aggregator

GOOD
(Another reinforcement to the market leader – when you are your best competitor, it is hard to lose)

Ticnet

Aggregator

GOOD
(like Lippupalvelu and Kartenhaus)

Cotton Blend

Design

BAD
(I didn’t see a real purpose for an external design firm; there are enough brands to simply develop internally for – cut out the sales force and shave costs)

LendingTree

Aggregrator

GOOD
(Anyone competing against them know how good they are; this is a huge plus for profits alone…but it can tie into the multitude of demographics gleaned from the weak consumer brads; kudos)

Realestate.com

Aggregator

GOOD
(Awesome domain name; easy tie in with LendingTree)

Getsmart

Aggregator

GOOD
(In most cases, they are the chief competitor to Lendingtree on the affiliate biz…or were until they left CJ with 3 days notice)

iNest

Aggregator

MIXED
(Weak brand, but it ties in with the compliments too well to be listed as “bad”)

Domania

Aggregator

MIXED
(Same as iNet; sort of weak, but with great tie ins)

Homeloancenter

Aggregator

GOOD
(This is a pretty good brand on its own, and it ties in well with the complimentary brands)

Service Magic

Aggregator

GOOD
(I’d give it a mix, but it can be cross sold very well to people coming in through the new home loan channel, making it a solid fit)

ImproveNet

Aggregator

GOOD
(Similar to Service Magic; great fix on a so-so brand)

Match.com

Subscription

GOOD
(Solid brand that can pull from consumer demographics as a primer)

Chemistry

Subscription

GOOD
(3 months ago it would be good due to the tie-ins and solid name, but now it is great due to the head-to-head fight with eharmony)

Udate

Subscription

MIXED
(Kinda weak brand, but subscription model businesses work, and there is no shortage of primer data to build that base up)

Entertainment.com

Subscription

GOOD
(Great name, salable product. I used to hate selling these things in high school though)

Sally Foster

Subscription

MIXED
(weak brand, strong channel backing it up)

Interval International

Aggregator

MIXED
(again…weak brand, but great tie in with the demographic data at hand)

Live It Up

Aggregator

GOOD
(So-so brand, but with the tie ins, I have to give it a “good”)

Condo Direct

Aggregator

GOOD
(Just like Live It Up…power in the consumer data on hand)

Smiley Central

Media

GOOD
(I don’t even want to tell you how much they make from this annoying site…adware is a profitable business)

iWon

Media

GOOD
(lotteries are a tax on the stupid; iWon brings them all together)

Ask.com

Media

GOOD
(The brand itself is so-so at the moment, but it has great potential once the algorithmic quality is there, plus the tie ins make it insanely worthwhile)

Myway

Media

MIXED
(Personalized Ask at best, but it isn’t terrible. It’d be better just completely folded into Ask functionality)

Excite

Media

GOOD
(This was a has been, but string enough former stars together and you can get a massive gravity well behind the Ask brand)

Citysearch

Media

GOOD
(local search will become more and more important, and this is a good brand for it, though I feel that it should be incorporated into Ask like myway should be)

Evite

Media

GOOD
(Decent brand to bring people together; a service of Ask might be better – like Google does with its services and products, to reinforce the main brand)

Bloglines

Media

GOOD
(I would give it a mix, but with Feedburner getting picked up by Google, maybe Ask will use this better to understand consumer behavior)

IAC Advertising

Media

GOOD
(Like Adwords/Adsense, but a little weaker still)

Gifts.com

Emerging Biz

GOOD
(this is just an incredible domain name; it will be hard to screw up)

Pronto.com

Emerging Biz

MIXED
(A me-too at this point, but it could be decent with the right consumer product tie-ins)

College Humor

Emerging Biz

GOOD
(By itself, mixed, when tied in with match and chemistry, good)

Vimeo

Emerging Biz

MIXED
(Good concept for Ask to jump into, but at this point it is well behind Youtube)

Busted Tees

Emerging Biz

GOOD
(A brand I’ve heard of backed by a very extensive sales channel can make this work)

Very Short List

Emerging Biz

MIXED
(mostly because it is somewhat confusing. It reminds me of Amazon’s personalized products with Google search history…we’ll see what they do with it)

Judging IAC might be best on a per sector basis first, and then as a whole. As a whole, I’m actually surprised…before the research began, I didn’t realize to the extent they have stretched their corporate tentacles; their good sectors prop up their weaker sectors in a very intelligent way.

Retailing = Mixed
(mostly weaker brands that are pushed through some pretty good sales channels)

Aggregator = Good
(a lot of brand reinforcement and complimentary sales)

Subscription = Good
(mostly due to the dating sites)

Media = Good
(they have the opportunity to tie together their media properties into something to rival Yahoo at the very least)

Emerging Biz = Mixed
(Gifts.com alone makes it good, but some of the other services could be more miss than hit).

The aggregator market is actually better than it appears because aggregation markets prosper when they have access to a lot of consumer information, which they would have due to the retailing market…very clever. The same trend continues throughout their business model.

What is the strength of having a dozen 2nd tier retail sites? Consumer information. How can that consumer information be best used? Dating, mortgages, more consumer products. This Diller guy seems to know what he’s doing. If Yahoo ever gets its act together and ties together the various networks it owns, then the value of that one yahoo account to control everything climbs exponentially. For IAC, a renter that buys a pair of pants online might be in the market for a house, and then in the market for some home improvement. Is the person single? Sell some dating services. What if that person came through on the HSN? Well, send them to iwon and smileycentral, pushing Ask.com brands all the way.

We have not heard the last of IAC; my prediction is that Diller will continue to quietly purchase mid-brand consumer goods companies/sites, premium domains, and build/buy strong aggregator brands. How long until they own a couple travel aggregators beyond their current deals with Hotwire? If I were in IAC corporate strategy, I’d be bristling with excitement right about now. With that much consumer information, the world is theirs.

JoeSinkwitz



Thursday, June 28, 2007 8:45:27 AM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
 | 
 Monday, June 11, 2007

Based on the feedback received from a few social media sites, Digg especially, there was certainly interest in seeing how other major search companies fare in comparison to Google, on an acquisition basis. Well before Google started buying everything in site, Yahoo was the major acquirer of everything digital. How do these acquisitions measure up, in terms of helping to create an economic moat?

To understand the future, we once again need to peer into the past. With the help of the wiki article on Yahoo’s past acquisitions, the following is an attempt to score each acquisition. A “good” or “bad” acquisition is based solely on whether Yahoo has done anything useful, to date, with that acquisition. Since we have no real insight into the depths of Yahoo, in terms of key engineers that might have floated from one project to another, it is conjecture at best. But hey, we hope you enjoy the analysis anyhow.

COMPANY

DATE

BUSINESS AREA

GOOD/BAD

Net Controls

September 1997

Software development

Mixed (A news ticker developer was their first acquisition. It is good in that it was originally considered a ‘killer app’, but bad in the sense didn’t really offer anything to Yahoo in business terms that couldn’t be easily developed)

Four11

October 1997

Rocketmail

Good (Rocketmail became Yahoo Mail and is widely used today to keep people on Yahoo branded properties)

Classic Games

March 1998

Video Games

Good (freebie video games went hand-in-hand with the Yahoo Mail…this definitely shows their focus on capturing eyeballs)

ViaWeb

June 1998

Online storefront

Mixed (it was good at the time for Yahoo to provide a solution, but lack of innovation on this product gives it a bad score…much more could have been done with the Yahoo stores to turn it into a de facto standard)

WebCal

July 1998

Software development

Mixed (a calendar solution is good to have, but purchase of one that could be easily developed makes it a bad purchase, given that it didn’t help to capture and retain eyeballs)

Yoyodyne

December 1998

Direct Marketing

Mixed (Good talent purchased with the promise of prominent entertainment sites for their media empire, but what happened with it? Bad)

Sportasy

December 1998

Fantasy Sports

Bad (They basically just bought out a partner with a website as a way to remove competition, when that competitor wasn’t established. Yahoo fantasy sports has room for increasing eyeballs, but they didn’t need to buy anyone to do this)

Hyperparellel

January 1999

Data mining

Good (A CRM system to help understand the consumer only adds to core knowledge base)

Log-Me-On

February 1999

Bookmark manager

Bad (Bookmarks at the time were managed more at the browser level than an external software solution; little has changed)

GeoCities

May 1999

Personal websites

Mixed (Good in that this property held more promise than Google’s Blogger purchase. Bad in that it was never made a priority and exists side by side yahoo 360)

Encompass

May 1999

Registration automation

Bad (there was no reason to spend $130M to help people register their hardware, then or now – it was supposed to help people get online, but that was never a focus for Yahoo)

Online Anywhere

June 1999

Content reformatting

Bad (Yahoo was never in the browser business and this was a browser solution)

Broadcast.com

July 1999

Streaming audio/video

Good (The cost was high, but for a “media” company, this represents an important purchase in terms of playing in a future channel)

MyQuest

November 1999

Telecommunications

Mixed (bad in terms of unknown value due to lack of info; good in that it appears to be for audio/video data store that would tie into the broadcast purchase)

Arthas.com

March 2000

Payment solutions

Mixed (Payment solutions would have been interesting to offer on the Yahoo stores; bad since it clearly failed and is now regulated to a parking page)

eGroups

August 2000

Groups

Good (It is now a part of Yahoo Groups, but this is almost a “mixed” purchase since the Groups project has been largely neglected)

Kimo

November 2000

Asia

Good (Yahoo intelligently made a foray into the Chinese and Japanese markets before many other online firms; their share is still strong in Japan)

Sold.com

April 2001

Auctions

Mixed (Good in the sense of offering auctions, but the idea failed, and now it redirects to a real estate site)

Launch Media

June 2001

Music

Good (Yahoo Music has been a useful product for the media company, in retaining eyeballs and eardrums)

Hotjobs

January 2002

Jobs

Mixed (At the time, Hotjobs as a strong competitor to Monster; since then hotjobs and Yahoo Jobs have taken a back seat innovation-wise)

Inktomi

December 2002

Search

Good (Yahoo needed its own search technology in order to compete against Google)

Overture

October 2003

PPC

Good (Yahoo’s best purchase, profit wise, but still wasn’t given the attention it needed…and now is second fiddle to Adwords)

3721 Internet Assistant

January 2004

Spyware

Bad (It should be obvious that this just isn’t a good thing for Yahoo to be doing, but still…it likely made them money)

Kelkoo

April 2004

Price comparisons

Mixed (Good in that it has been profitable since 2002, but bad in the since it never really made sense for Yahoo to own and hasn’t been integrated)

Oddpost

July 2004

E-mail

Good (Paid e-mail was good at the time for premium services, but now all those features are largely free)

The All-Seeing Eye

September 2004

videogame server browsing application & service

Good (this was helpful in integrating with the Yahoo Games)

MusicMatch

October 2004

Music

Good (complimentary purchase to expand the Yahoo Music brand)

Stata Labs

October 2004

E-mail

Good (This would have mixed about a year ago, but the features from the “outlook killer” were finally integrated into Yahoo Mail)

WUF Networks

November 2004

Content control

Good (this allows for controls and access to a variety of multimedia, which a media firm should be good at handling)

Verdisoft

February 2005

software development

Bad (it was intended to help mobile customers keep in synch with data, specifically Yahoo data. Again, this was not a ‘Yahoo’ issue though, but a device issue)

Ludicorp Research

March 2005

Flickr

Mixed (Good in that it is a very strong social image brand, bad in that they haven’t integrated it yet into Yahoo. They really need to get better at the integration piece)

Stadeon

March 2005

cross-platform gaming technology

Mixed (multi-platform gaming could have been an intriguing fit for Yahoo Games, should that have been their primary focus. With Yahoo though, focus is an after thought, so as far as we know, it died)

TeRespondo

April 2005

Brazilian performance-based advertising network

Good (Any performance-based advertising is key to Yahoo’s success)

Dialpad

June 2005

Voice

Good (Yahoo Voice could become the next Vonage, provided they support and nourish its growth)

Blo.gs

June 2005

Blogroll

Mixed (This was a great idea for a purchase, in terms of aggregating content from a media control perspective, but again they didn’t do much other than throw a feature on My Yahoo)

Konfabulator

July 2005

Widgets

Good (This is still listed as good since it could be useful for Yahoo’s insanely large and diverse web empire, but given they went and purchased mybloglog that shows the tech was never really used much)

Alibaba

October 2005

Search

Good (Yahoo needs all the help they can get promoting search as a brand, and Alibaba may eventually have intellectual capital in the area that exceeds Yahoo’s)

Upcoming.org

October 2005

Social Calendars

Mixed (Another social media site is great if truly integrated, but it isn’t…again)

Whereonearth

October 2005

Search

Good (Geolocational search will be very valuable as consumers demand localized results)

del.icio.us

December 2005

Social bookmarking

Mixed (This is a very promising social bookmarking site that is heavily used, but if Yahoo doesn’t allow it to keep innovating and doesn’t share data with it from other social media sources, what will happen?)

SearchFox, WebJay

January 2006

RSS

Bad (A RSS reader was already purchased by Yahoo; this one also fell apart)

Meedio

April 2006

Digital Media Management

Good (Yahoo’s core is media, so managing media is a helpful compliment)

Jumpcut.com

September 2006

Video

Good (Video editing and hosting could be a good rival to Youtube, if it ever is given internal capital from Yahoo)

AdInterax

October 2006

Rich Media creation

Good (An apparently compliment to Jumpcut, and possibly a future compliment to Overture and Right Media)

Kenet Works

November 2006

Social mobile

Good (Another social concept, with a mobile focus; the same questions remain given Yahoo’s non-integration)

Bix.com

November 2006

Video

Good (Yahoo’s answer to Youtube? Still too early, and practically no buzz)

Wretch

December 2006

Social Taiwan

Good (Another community, another question of integration)

MyBlogLog

January 2007

Blog widget

Bad ($10M for a widget that is slowly made into a heavily spammed social networking tool?)

Right Media

April 2007

Advertising platform

Mixed (Good that Yahoo decided to expand their performance-based advertising presence…bad that it only happened after Google bought Doubleclick and was followed by Microsoft’s monster purchase of Adquantive)

 

Remember that Google was rated at roughly a 3.5 GPA based on its “good”, “bad”, and “mixed” scores, so it was a tough task to measure up to. How did Yahoo do? To say that they’ve had a peanut butter strategy is an understatement – an outsider with no understanding would have a tough time figuring out core competence other than to say “they do something online;” however, the possibility does remain that especially with the sheer number of communities purchased, a simple and effective solution to tie the Yahoo brand and networkability back and forth could create a very powerful company…search at that point almost becomes an afterthought since a consumer of information can become a consumer of goods simply by virtue of connections.

So far, most of the purchases, from the outsider’s point of view, were made…well, simply because they were available. One would hope that an acquisition is made to bolster core search technologies, or expand advertising reach (given that Yahoo is more of a media company than a search company), or perhaps to extend web accessibility value chains and make sense of all the data. Unfortunately, this just didn’t happen, since Yahoo’s strategy, just looking above, has been to buy first and ask questions later. At the time of some purchases the ideas seem fantastic, but the execution has been horrendous… purchasing a key widget maker in 2005 but then not doing anything with it and thus having to purchase another widget in 2007 is unacceptable; given Yahoo’s strategy, I would not be surprised to see them acquire more search technology that never gets integrated, more social networking sites that don’t share information among a standards-based architecture, and the occasional completely unrelated purchase for the sake of spending money that could be spent overpaying a CEO 900+% against peer average (I kid… sort of.)

Does this mean that Yahoo isn’t likely to ever rival Google for online dominance? Most likely. While Yahoo gets more eyeballs to the entirety of its network, the network is so fragmented that its power doesn’t conform to Metcalfe’s law, and thus is underutilized.

It is only a matter of time before the Yahoo brand is purchased by a very smart media/tech company, with pieces spun off at top dollar, and the rest properly integrated to extract true value… IAC or Microsoft? eBay or Amazon? We’ll be watching.

JoeSinkwitz



Monday, June 11, 2007 10:01:15 AM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
 | 
 Thursday, May 31, 2007

The Google Report Card

You've probably been reading more and more about Google's recent acquisition binge, what it means to privacy, monopolistic concerns, etc. Unfortunately, I haven't been seeing enough of what it means to Google as a business.will they allow Google to grow more profitably in the future, will they create some sort of economic moat?

To understand the future, we need to peer into the past. With the help of the Wiki article on Google's past acquisitions, the following is an attempt to score each acquisition. A "good" or "bad" acquisition is based solely on whether Google has done anything useful, to date, with that acquisition. Since we have no real insight into the depths of Google, in terms of key engineers that might have floated from one project to another, it is conjecture at best. But hey, we hope you enjoy the analysis anyhow.

The Google Report Card

Date Company Business Area Good/Bad
September 20, 2001 Deja's Usenet archive Google Groups GOOD
(still being used and out of beta)
September 20, 2001 Outride, Inc. Online retrieval tech GOOD
(info retrieval is key to the search business)
February, 2003 Pyra Labs Blogger MIXED
(nothing has been done with blogger since the purchase, but money is made off of all the MFA sites)
April, 2003 Neotonic Software CRM technology MIXED
(good if you count automated support a positive thing; bad if you are trying to actually resolve an issue)
April, 2003 Applied Semantics Adwords / Adsense GOOD
(adwords and adsense made Google the money printer that it is)
September 30, 2003 Kaltix Search engine technology GOOD
(acquiring patents for the core business is almost always good)
May 10, 2004 Ignite Logic Template maker BAD
(aside from use in Blogger, where else does Google need templates?)
July 13, 2004 Picasa Photo management software MIXED
(bad in that they haven’t done anything with it yet, good in that they still could do a lot with it)
October 27, 2004 Keyhole, Inc. Google Earth GOOD
(a popular product with income potential)
Sept.-Dec., 2004 Where2 Google Maps GOOD
(a nice compliment to Google Earth)
Sept.-Dec., 2004 ZipDash Google Ride Finder GOOD
(if it ever gets out of beta it has potential)
2005 2Web Technologies Spreadsheets GOOD
(part of Google’s office suite)
March 28, 2005 Urchin Software Corporation Web stats GOOD
(Google gets more user data.information is power; a recurring theme)
May 12, 2005 Dodgeball Social networking BAD
(nothing was done with this)
July, 2005 Reqwireless Web browser and wireless e-mail MIXED
(good for near term, but long-term the only difference between a office computer and a phone is the browser agent is slightly tweaked)
July 7, 2005 Current Communications Group Broadband Internet GOOD
(this is really good. Control upstream data [more power] and bypass greedier cable companies)
August 17, 2005 Android PDA software BAD
(doubtful that PDA specific software will matter for too much longer - see Reqwireless)
November, 2005 Skia Graphics software GOOD
(part of Google's office suite)
November 17, 2005 Akwan Information Technologies Latin American Internet operations GOOD
(more upstream data; tap into a growing market)
January 17, 2006 dMarc Broadcasting Radio Advertising GOOD
(I think this might be one of their best purchases for expanding the ad network)
February 14, 2006 Measure Map Blog analysis GOOD
(more data, more power…and it can be useful in determining real blogs versus splogs)
March 9, 2006 Upstartle Word processing GOOD
(part of Google’s office suite)
March 14, 2006 @Last Software 3-D modeling GOOD
(possible part of Google’s office suite)
April 9, 2006 Orion Search GOOD
(again…core product is search)
August 15, 2006 Neven Vision Photo aggregator GOOD
(good if it truly is used with Picasa to do something useful)
October 31, 2006 JotSpot Wiki creator MIXED
(similar to Pyra purchase, in terms of controlling the means for people to get started online – good if executed)
November, 2006 Youtube Online video GOOD
(this is a big ad revenue stream about to pop)
December, 2006 Endoxon Mapping solutions GOOD
(technologies will compliment Earth and Maps)
January, 2007 Xunlei Network, file-sharing GOOD
(control the user’s e-mail, virtual hard disk space…the entire dataset of being online)
February, 2007 Adscape Video game advertising GOOD
(another channel to push ads)
March, 2007 Trendalyzer Analysis GOOD
(understanding the data better, even at a fractional percentage, will result in higher revenue)
April, 2007 Tonic Systems Presentation software GOOD
(another product for Google’s office suite)
April, 2007 Marratech Video conferencing GOOD
(continue to control the medium for pushing ads…might be a good fit with dMarc)
May 11, 2007 GreenBorder Technologies Desktop enterprise security GOOD
(securing data and the user experience allows for further scaling)

Google's Boosting Resources

So far, most of the purchases, from the outsider's point of view, were made to either bolster core search technologies, expand advertising reach, extend web accessibility value chain, or help to make sense of all the data. Even then, the acquisitions marked "mixed" or "bad" may have synergies we simply can't see right now, or as theorized above, were made more to acquire talent than any specific technology.

The Future Of Google

Does this mean the pending transactions of Doubleclick, Feedburner, and possibility Salesforce are a good idea? Most likely. Doubleclick could be used to once again expand that ad network, Feedburner would bring access to even more user information, and Salesforce would be a mixed opinion, likely used as a compliment to Neotonic.

I want to know when Google is going to stop holding back though; buy Apple and Nintendo, just to get it out of the way.

JoeSinkwitz



Thursday, May 31, 2007 8:49:49 AM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
 | 
 Monday, May 21, 2007

We’ve all heard the phrase that it isn’t what you know, but who you know. I personally encountered this saying multiple times back during my undergrad years when I was interviewing with guys like Deloitte, Compaq, and KPMG. A person could be brilliant, but lose out to someone with better connections (i.e. nepotism); it was usually the difference between an offer and an interview elsewhere.

 

As we get more ingrained in our respective industries, especially true in affiliate marketing, it isn’t just who you know, but who knows what you know, and who they know. Yes, it is a mouthful, but worth understanding.

 

My mother-in-law and my mother are both heavily connected in medical communities; as a proxy relationship, I know a lot of “who” individuals. However, it doesn’t do me much good because they really have no concept of what it is I do for a living, yet alone why my firm is better than company X, etc. If I were a newly minted doctor, it'd be striking gold, but I'm not (and I hear about that decision at least once a week).

 

That takes care of the importance of the first two pieces, and now the final. Let’s say that you know a lot of “who” individuals in your respective industry since you’re ancient, but they also understand what it is you know that makes you so special. This is a fantastic step, and if you are at this point in your career, you’re bound to be successful…now for the clincher and the whole point of social networking (the kind that mattered, before the likes of Digg): it is all about who they know. Metcalfe’s law is very, very important and will open up a sea of opportunities if you know how to use it to your advantage.

 

Below are some people in our industry that you should get to know for connections, that you should aspire to show off your unique talents to, and whom can probably connect you to an unbelievable amount of other contacts you might not even be aware of. Did I leave a lot of people out? Yes, but mainly because by connecting to these individuals, you are likely to run into the rest due to the size of their respective networks.

 

Affiliate Programs

Linda Buquet

 

Blackhat SEO

Quadszilla

 

Community Development

Lee Dodd

 

Domaining

Frank Schilling

 

Insanity

Chris Hooley

 

Link Building

Jarrod Hunt

 

Organic Search

Aaron Wall

 

PPC

Jeremy Schoemaker

 

Social Media

Michael Gray

 

Whitehat SEO

Rand Fishkin

 

If you can impress just one of these people and can show that you are worth doing business with, it’ll make all the difference.

 

JoeSinkwitz



Monday, May 21, 2007 10:29:13 AM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
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 Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Initially the plan was to talk about where search engines might be in 10 years, who the big players might be, etc. I still want to do that, but I wanted to broaden the discussion to touch on more topics relevant to the affiliate community, since I believe other topics will significantly influence how the game is run. Below are a collection of some thoughts on the subject.

1. SEO and domaining will converge leaving zero distinction between the two; it makes far too much sense for SEOs to understand that as search evolves, the exact match (non-hyphenated domain) will have the highest likelihood of being the most relevant, everything else being equal. For domainers, to ignore a channel as big as search is silly…because of this I expect to see quality search agencies getting gobbled up by large domainers and large search agencies buying small to medium-sized domain portfolios.

2. Unsolicited commercial e-mail will shrink. As the intent understanding increases, and the message can be determined on the fly to be commercial versus non-commercial, a series of AI elements should be able to figure out whether you wanted it or not. Consider that the three most popular e-mail addresses are held by the three biggest search engines, and you'll see that the necessary AI advances will have to be produced anyhow. White listing services will be worth their weight in gold.

3. Search will remain an oligopoly, with 4 major players and little else outside of it. Google, Microsoft, eBay and Amazon. Google remains primarily due to their current status and edge, developing algorithmic solutions based on the world's content and historical linking data, with relevancy that varies the way that slot machine payouts vary [and for the same reason]. Yahoo will continue to purchase social media and community-centric networks, eventually showing more and more signs of financial stress, resulting in the company being unable to quickly tie the networks together; Microsoft will help ease the transition by purchasing them outright…the Yahoo/MSN brand is up for grabs, but Microsoft will slowly pull the data together, determining relevancy across and breadth and depth of user data that Google will not have (though they'll be close). eBay's purchase of Stumbleupon, integration of Skype and Paypal, and increased understanding of global markets will make them the number 3 player in search, as the premiere shopping engine; future purchases of shopping agent technology may also be necessary. The number 4 player will briefly be IAC, but after years of trying to make ASK a success in its own right, the technology will be sold to Amazon, who integrates the small but growing community into its own network, competing more head to head with eBay than either Microsoft or Google is capable of doing.

4. Text-messaging, IM, and E-mail will converge; the choice of communication will either be instantaneous or delayed, largely due to when a person is willing to carry on communications - they will grow to become a commercial communications platform, complete with voice and video. A person will have the ability to communicate hidden or in view, silent or aloud. Privacy and unconnected time will be but a flutter of a memory.

5. Affiliate networks will be replaced with affiliate platforms, which make it easy for offline companies to create boxed solutions complete with CRM, the benefit being it will be harder and harder to distinguish between the ultimate retailer and the actual affiliate, especially among the savvier affiliates that corner market after market. While the easy money will likely have disappeared much in the same way it disappeared after each Internet gold rush, there will still be a wealth of riches to be made by those capable of thinking differently and pushing limits.

6. Television and streaming online video will be essentially the same thing; leaders like Comcast will attempt to tie up the cable line monopoly, but intelligent distribution companies like Google, that have been buying up dark fiber and wireless distribution rights, will be able to circumvent the strict scheduling process that the outdated paradigm currently upholds. Entertainment will be real-time or it will be on-demand; product placement and internal advertising will replace commercials; Youtube and its future peers will replace ABC, NBC, CBS, et al.

7. Word of mouth will still be the most effective way to gain mindshare and build a lasting brand.

JoeSinkwitz



Tuesday, May 15, 2007 2:30:09 PM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
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 Monday, April 30, 2007

For those of you not intimately involved in social media, there was quite an event unfolding this evening on the popular social news site Digg.

It began with a story containing a HD-DVD key, which according to the DMCA is illegal. Digg, as a business, acted to remove that post.

Cue Russell Crowe yelling "unleash hell" because that's exactly what happened. Posting multiple stories and voting them up as quickly as possible, under the pretense of a revolt revolving around free speech and rallying against censorship, many Diggers made their voices heard.

Where do I as a person stand on this issue? Well...Digg is a business, Digg.com is owned by Digg, and the DMCA, while arguably an inane law, is still a law. Digg did what was right, and now Diggers are showing the world what many outside the cynical community already knew: it is time to grow up.

Does that mean that dissenters should have their accounts deleted? For simply dissenting, no. For posting illegal material? Yes. Hopefully this will all blow over soon so Digg can go back to just hating us SEO types and burying useful information without actually reading the content.

JoeSinkwitz

Update: Digg decided to ignore the C&D, for better or worse. Personally, I don't think it was a good idea to take that stance, and think it is even worse that he publically took that stance, given the ammunition the opposing lawyers will now have.



Monday, April 30, 2007 10:06:38 PM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
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 Wednesday, April 18, 2007

The Internet continues its constant churning, with heightened deal-making over the past few weeks. What do you make of the following?
eBay acquiring StumbleUpon?
CLEAR CHANNEL in advertising deal with GOOGLE?
Google to Buy DoubleClick for $3.1 Billion Cash?

Now, not everything above is a done deal and is certainly subject to change, but it reminds me of a different time, one that looked like:
eBay acquiring Paypal?
Ask Jeeves in advertising deal with Google?
Google to buy Pyra Labs (Blogger)?

Every few years in business there is an expansion, followed by rampant consolidation and excess VC funding, and then ultimately digestion and contraction; these business cycles aren't really anything new, and because of that, it can be possible to use them to your advantage.

In years of expansion we see little fishes get their start, among a sea of bigger fishes that don't pay them much mind. Why not? The larger fishes are a battled scarred from previous cycles, not paying much heed to these new nuisances; the larger fish are really only concerned with the other larger fishes. Time passes and those little fish start to bulk up a bit, maybe swimming faster and further than some of the bigger fish…suddenly, one of them gets eaten. At that moment, one of the larger fish just got a bit larger than the other fish, which frightens the others, fueling a furry of ferocious fish feeding. After that frenzy finishes, the remaining fish are bloated and lumbering, barely able to move…many die. Time passes and new fish come along.

While a bit cynical, that analogy isn't far from the truth, where companies at some point begin to buy anything and everything remotely related to the buzz phrases of that particular business cycle. Just 8 years ago it was a search for more eyeballs, without concern for profits. After the consolidation and digestion period, purchases were slower and the companies of the time that launched were uninteresting (read: profitable). Now the cycle is in full swing again with bubble 2.0, with the bigger fish again snapping up a variety of unprofitable companies that have a large number of social eyeballs.

Okay, okay. How do you make money in all of this craziness?
Selectively adapt.

I don't advocate ignoring your core business because that business is likely the reason you are even in business (convoluted enough?). Instead, it might make sense to spend 10-20% of your time on a new buzz-related concept, building a tiny fish that looks like it might just be something a larger fish would eat…granted, the original larger fishes would likely sniff that venture and pass on for something more substantial, but the newly larger fishes that are on an eating binge generally don't taken into account true value - the logic seems to be that if it looks sort of like food, even if it isn't, chomp. Hook. Line. Sinker.

Just make sure your 2.0 clone is easily spun off from your core assets so you can go back to really growing your business in the wake of the feeding frenzy, and if you don't actually get eaten, don't worry. Why not? Most acquisitions have a negative combination value, meaning that your venture at some point very well could have a value greater than the originators of the concept; by the time the next business cycle is coming around, you could be one of the first to be eaten.

JoeSinkwitz



Wednesday, April 18, 2007 3:10:18 PM (US Mountain Standard Time, UTC-07:00)  #     
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 Friday, April 13, 2007

I struggled for a bit on the title because the point of this post isn't to come of as pompous or boastful; rather, it is to instruct on a general way of thinking. A while back, I drew a rather simplistic view of what a search engine is, comparing it to a single data table with a few columns (scoring variables) and a few rows (some URLs). Based on that simple concept, hopefully at least a few people began to realize that the goal of what search professionals do is to try to anticipate what variables will be most heavily weighted, and build sites around those variables. In time that variable mix may be quality content that is appropriately viewed upon by its true peers as important relative to other documents, but that mix just isn't there yet.

So, if the variable mix isn't to the point where quality content that is viewed as quality by its true peers, what is the goal of a search engine? To get there.

How do they get there? Incremental changes usually. We've all seen the changes as search engines evolve, chasing that relevancy perfection that provides the optimal blend of paid advertising and pure unadulterated content…from content to votes, from votes from really authority sites, to votes from really authority sites, etc; the engines do and will continue to evolve.

So, how do you outthink a group of PhDs? By not trying to outthink them.  Are you confused? It is slightly counterintuitive, but you'll see what I mean.

With all the A/B testing that goes on, tweaking filters, employing re-ranking tactics, constantly shuffling and reintroducing data, there can be a whole lot of things to track in your attempt to stay on top of the game. Try not to focus too much on that for the time being though - instead, I want you to develop a list of phrases to track on a fairly regular basis, completely independent of each other. Track historically spammy phrases in the male enhancement pharmaceutical arena to dog biscuits, civil war action figures, to the bicentennial - track a lot of competitive and non-competitive phrases because I want you to be able to see what happens when changes occur. Every week, run through your list of phrases and just look for a few things:
1. Top 10 players, their top 10 incoming links according to Yahoo, and total # links
2. Those that fell out of the Top 10, their top 10 incoming links according to Yahoo, and total # links
3. On each phrase, is the current mix more relevant or less relevant [score 1 for yes, and 0 for no]

Whenever you want to know what the engines currently like, just compare the two sets of data…really, that simple usually. When I say compare, that becomes a bit more nebulous because what I personally look for isn't always the same…sometimes I may notice a keyword phrase within the URL being given more weight, sometimes it might be keyword density, age of site, co-occurrence of related phrases, etc. Usually though, in our current environment, it has been links. How many, how powerful, how relevant? If the score is higher than last week, and you were being honest, expect the changes to stick; if it was lower…a lot lower…you can probably go back to doing something else.

Now, a room full of PhDs would probably assume that some people are going to try to reverse engineer their algorithm and filter sets by looking at a large grouping of unrelated data; thus, what you just did isn't all that earth shattering to them, and I have a hunch that they wouldn't really care, given that for most search professionals, the next logical step is to provide the engines with that they are trying to reach: relevancy.  Yes, holes will be exploited, but so long as their A/B testing shows a measurable increase in overall relevancy from their own grouping of unrelated keyword phrases, that change is likely to stick.

If you can see a certain variable weighting change that would improve relevancy, plan for it occurring; build a site just for that purpose if you have to.  For instance, I think social media marketing will get filtered down a notch in the upcoming year, due to its rampant use, either by taking into account how quickly the links are added (already there, but just tweaking that) and by taking into account more differences between root domain theme / page theme, root domain authority / page authority, inlink theme. Who knows though, the A/B testing may show that the end results of social media marketing actually produce more relevant results.

Have a pleasant weekend.

JoeSinkwitz